Kroger reports earnings on Thursday, and one derivatives expert says the options market is implying a relatively tame move on the report.
That’s not always the case.
“To say this stock has had a wild ride over the last year would be an understatement,” Stacey Gilbert, head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
Gilbert explained what the stock’s journey has looked like over the last 12 months, and what the options are implying for its earnings report. Here are her most important points.
• Kroger shares have seen relatively dramatic peaks and valleys in one year, rising 14 percent in that time. Looking back, the stock rallied 57 percent from in October to the market’s top in January before tumbling 11 percent from January to early March. The stock then sunk another 11 percent on its earnings report that month and, in the last three months, has risen 12 percent.
• The average move over the last four quarters has been around 11 percent, and options trades are implying a move of about 6 percent in either direction on the earnings report, smaller than in recent quarters.
• This implied move would be near the low end of what has been realized over the last four quarters. Ultimately, that means the market is not pricing in excess risk, and this earnings report is unlikely to usher in much volatility.
Bottom line: Kroger shares are expected to move about 6 percent in either direction on Thursday before the market opens, a relatively small move when compared with recent reports.